{"id":578,"date":"2020-02-07T05:06:41","date_gmt":"2020-02-06T20:06:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tetu-se.com\/?p=578"},"modified":"2020-09-01T21:25:05","modified_gmt":"2020-09-01T12:25:05","slug":"%e3%80%8c%e9%ba%bb%e7%96%b9%e3%81%ae%e6%84%9f%e6%9f%93%e5%8a%9b%e3%81%af%e3%82%a4%e3%83%b3%e3%83%95%e3%83%ab%e3%82%a8%e3%83%b3%e3%82%b6%e3%81%ae10%e5%80%8d%e3%80%8d%e3%81%af%e5%98%98%e3%80%82%ef%bd%9e","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tetu-se.com\/?p=578","title":{"rendered":"\u300c\u9ebb\u75b9\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u529b\u306f\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u306e10\u500d\u300d\u306f\u5618\u3002\uff5e\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\uff5e"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u306b\u9ebb\u75b9\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u529b\u306f\u3068\u3066\u3082\u9ad8\u3044\u3068\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<br><br>\u30b5\u30a4\u30c8\u3084\u6587\u732e\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u7570\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u306e10\u500d\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u529b\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3068\u8a00\u308f\u308c\u305f\u308a\u3059\u308b\u307b\u3069\u3067\u3059\u3002<br><br> \u305d\u306e\u8105\u5a01\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u529b\u3088\u308a\u3001\u3057\u3070\u3057\u3070\u9ebb\u75b9\u306e\u60a3\u8005\u304c\u767a\u751f\u3057\u305f\u308a\u3001\u6d41\u884c\u3059\u308b\u3068\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30b9\u306b\u306a\u308b\u307b\u3069\u3067\u3059\u3002<br><br> \u4f8b\u3048\u3070\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30b9\u3092\u5fa1\u89a7\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><iframe src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/qi9Jcqvoniw?start=78\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen=\"\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u3053\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u5c11\u3057\u6d41\u884c\u3057\u305f\u308a\u3001\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u304c\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\u3068\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30b9\u306b\u53d6\u308a\u4e0a\u3052\u3089\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u3053\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30b9\u304c\u6d41\u308c\u308b\u3068\u4eba\u306f\u5c11\u306a\u304b\u3089\u305a\u4e0d\u5b89\u3092\u62b1\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<br><br> \u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u73fe\u5b9f\u3092\u898b\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002<br><br> \u611f\u67d3\u3057\u305f\u4eba\u306e\u5468\u308a\u3067\u611f\u67d3\u304c\u62e1\u5927\u3057\u305f\u306e\u304b\u3002<br><br> \u611f\u67d3\u304c\u6d41\u884c\u3057\u305f\u3068\u3055\u308c\u308b\u5730\u57df\u304b\u3089\u3055\u3089\u306b\u611f\u67d3\u304c\u62e1\u5927\u3057\u305f\u306e\u304b\u3002<br><br> \u5b66\u7d1a\u9589\u9396\u304c\u5168\u56fd\u3067\u767a\u751f\u3057\u305f\u306e\u304b\u3002<br><br> \u73fe\u5b9f\u3092\u898b\u308b\u3068\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u611f\u67d3\u306f\u62e1\u5927\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<br><br> \u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3001\u6bce\u5e74\u5168\u56fd\u3067\u6d41\u884c\u3059\u308b\u306e\u306b\u3001\u9ebb\u75b9\u306f\u6d41\u884c\u3057\u3066\u3082\u4e00\u90e8\u5730\u57df\u3067\u53ce\u675f\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<br><br> \u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u5e83\u304c\u308a\u7d9a\u3051\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<br><br> \u3053\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u3068\u6bd4\u3079\u308b\u3068\u9ebb\u75b9\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u529b\u306f\u6c7a\u3057\u3066\u9ad8\u304f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<br><br> \u3067\u306f\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u3088\u308a\u3082\u611f\u67d3\u529b\u304c\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u5f37\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8a71\u306f\u3069\u3053\u304b\u3089\u6765\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u304b\u3002<br><br> \u3069\u3046\u3084\u3089\u300c\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u6307\u6a19\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u3001\u9ebb\u75b9\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u529b\u306f\u5f37\u3044\u3068\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3088\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002<br><br> \u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3001\uff08\u300c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.co.jp\/%E3%81%AF%E3%81%97%E3%81%8B%E3%81%AE%E8%84%85%E5%A8%81%E3%81%A8%E9%A9%9A%E7%95%B0-%E5%B2%A9%E6%B3%A2%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6%E3%83%A9%E3%82%A4%E3%83%96%E3%83%A9%E3%83%AA%E3%83%BC-%E5%B1%B1%E5%86%85-%E4%B8%80%E4%B9%9F\/dp\/4000296655\/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;linkCode=ll1&amp;tag=amazonafiii-22&amp;linkId=72ade51f9126a93f3676fd3d5de26ac0&amp;language=ja_JP\">\u306f\u3057\u304b\u306e\u8105\u5a01\u3068\u9a5a\u7570<\/a>\u300d\uff503\u3000\uff09<br> \u75c5\u539f\u4f53\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u6027\u3092\u793a\u3059\u3082\u306e\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u75ab\u5b66\u3067\u306f\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570\u3068\u3044\u3046\u6307\u6a19\u304c\u7528\u3044\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<br><br>\u3053\u308c\u306f\u3001\u6d41\u884c\u304c\u8d77\u304d\u305f\u969b\u306b\u611f\u67d3\u306e\u62e1\u5927\u72b6\u6cc1\u3092\u8ffd\u8de1\u8abf\u67fb\u3057\u3066\u6c42\u3081\u305f\u3001\u3072\u3068\u308a\u306e\u60a3\u8005\u304c\u611f\u67d3\u3055\u305b\u305f\u5e73\u5747\u4eba\u6570\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u8868\uff11\u306b\u793a\u3057\u305f\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3001\u9ebb\u75b9\u306f\u30a6\u30a4\u30eb\u30b9\u306e\u4e2d\u3067\u3001\u3082\u3063\u3068\u3082\u9ad8\u3044\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570\u3068\u306a\u308a\u3001\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u306e\uff16\u500d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u611f\u67d3\u6027\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<br><br>\u5358\u7d14\u8a08\u7b97\u3067\u306f\u3001\u9ebb\u75b9\u60a3\u8005\u4e00\u4eba\u304c\u5c11\u306a\u304f\u3068\u3082\uff11\uff12\u540d\u306b\u611f\u67d3\u3092\u3046\u3064\u3057\u3001\u305d\u306e\uff12\u540d\u306f\u3001\u3055\u3089\u306b\uff11\uff14\uff14\u540d\u306b\u611f\u67d3\u3092\u3046\u3064\u3057\u3066\u62e1\u5927\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002<br> \u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u5f15\u7528\u3053\u3053\u307e\u3067<br><br> \u3053\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3001\u300c\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570\u300d\u306f\u611f\u67d3\u529b\u306e\u6307\u6a19\u306b\u7528\u3044\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<br><br> \u6b21\u306b\u3001\u300c\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570\u300d\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3067\u3059\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306f\u30a6\u30a3\u30ad\u30da\u30c7\u30a3\u30a2\u306e\u8a18\u4e8b\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<br><br> \u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc<a href=\"https:\/\/ja.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E5%86%8D%E7%94%9F%E7%94%A3%E6%95%B0\">\u3053\u3061\u3089<\/a>\u3088\u308a\u8ee2\u8f09<br>\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570\uff08\u82f1\u8a9e\uff1aBasic reproduction number\u3001\u8868\u8a18R 0\uff1a\u30a2\u30fc\u30eb \u30ce\u30fc\u30c8\uff09\u3068\u306f\u3001\u75ab\u75c5\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u529b\u3001\u4eba\u53e3\u306e\u5897\u52a0\u6e1b\u5c11\u306a\u3069\u306b\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u308b\u6570\u5b57\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<br><br> \u75ab\u5b66\u4e0a\u3001\u611f\u67d3\u75c7\u6d41\u884c\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u30fb\u6291\u5236\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u516c\u8846\u885b\u751f\u4e0a\u3067\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u8ab2\u984c\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u305d\u306e\u554f\u984c\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u3001\u500b\u4f53\u7fa4\u751f\u614b\u5b66\u3067\u4f7f\u7528\u3055\u308c\u305f\u6570\u7406\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u5b89\u5b9a\u6027\u5206\u6790\u306a\u3069\u304c\u611f\u67d3\u75c7\u75ab\u5b66\u3067\u3082\u6d41\u7528\u3067\u304d\u305f\u3053\u3068\u304b\u3089\u3001\u3053\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u5206\u91ce\u304c\u767a\u5c55\u3059\u308b\u4e8b\u3068\u306a\u3063\u305f[9]\u3002<br><br> R 0\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u5f0f\u3067\u3042\u3089\u308f\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3002\u03b2\u306f\u611f\u67d3\u7387\uff0c\u03b3\u306f\u56de\u5fa9\u7387\u3084\u9694\u96e2\u7387\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<br><br> R 0 = \u03b2\uff0f\u03b3 <br> \u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u30fc\u8ee2\u8f09\u3053\u3053\u307e\u3067<br><br> \u300c\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570\u300d\u306f\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u3068\u56de\u5fa9\u7387\u3067\u7b97\u51fa\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<br><br>\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u3084\u56de\u5fa9\u7387\u306f\u611f\u67d3\u306e\u62e1\u5927\u72b6\u6cc1\u3092\u8ffd\u8de1\u8abf\u67fb\u3092\u3057\u3066\u6c42\u3081\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3088\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002<br><br> \u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u5b9f\u306f\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u3092\u8abf\u3079\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u9014\u65b9\u3082\u306a\u304f\u96e3\u3057\u3044\u3082\u306e\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<br><br>\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u3092\u4f8b\u306b\u3057\u3066\u8003\u3048\u3066\u3044\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<br><br> \u4f8b\u3048\u3070\u3001\u7236\u89aa\u304c\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u306b\u304b\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3068\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<br><br>\u7236\u89aa\u4ee5\u5916\u306e\u6bcd\u89aa\u3084\u5b50\u4f9b\u304c\u304b\u304b\u3063\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u5834\u5408\u3001\u3069\u3053\u304b\u3089\u611f\u67d3\u3057\u305f\u8003\u3048\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u304b\u3002<br><br> \u8077\u5834\u3084\u304a\u5f97\u610f\u5148\u3002\u3082\u3057\u304f\u306f\u901a\u52e4\u4e2d\u306e\u30d0\u30b9\u3084\u96fb\u8eca\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<br><br>\u5b66\u6821\u3067\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u304c\u6d41\u884c\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306a\u3089\u3001\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u4f4e\u3044\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u4e0d\u9855\u6027\u611f\u67d3\u3067\u5b50\u4f9b\u304b\u3089\u79fb\u3063\u305f\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\uff08\u4e0d\u9855\u6027\u611f\u67d3\u3068\u306f\u611f\u67d3\u304c\u6210\u7acb\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u304c\u3089\u81e8\u5e8a\u7684\u306b\u78ba\u8a8d\u3057\u3046\u308b\u75c7\u72b6\u3092\u793a\u3055\u306a\u3044\u611f\u67d3\u69d8\u5f0f\u306e\u3053\u3068\u3092\u793a\u3059\uff09<br><br> \u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u304c\u6d41\u884c\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u6642\u671f\u3067\u3042\u308c\u3070\u3001\u3069\u3053\u304b\u3089\u611f\u67d3\u3057\u305f\u304b\u3092\u7279\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u96e3\u3057\u304f\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<br><br> \u3057\u304b\u3082\u3001\u3069\u306e\u30a6\u30a4\u30eb\u30b9\u3067\u3082\u305d\u3046\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u304c\u5b58\u5728\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<br><br>\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u306e\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u9593\u306f\u7d041\u65e5\uff5e3\u65e5\u3068\u8a00\u308f\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u305d\u3053\u307e\u3067\u8003\u616e\u3059\u308b\u3068\u4f55\u65e5\u306b\u3053\u306e\u4eba\u304b\u3089\u79fb\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3001\u3068\u7279\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3059\u3002<br><br> \u3055\u3089\u306b\u3001\u300c\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570\u300d\u3092\u7b97\u51fa\u3059\u308b\u306b\u306f\u56de\u5fa9\u7387\u3082\u6c42\u3081\u306a\u3051\u308c\u3070\u306a\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<br><br>\u3053\u3053\u307e\u3067\u304f\u308b\u3068\u3001\u672c\u5f53\u306b\u611f\u67d3\u306e\u62e1\u5927\u72b6\u6cc1\u3092\u8ffd\u8de1\u8abf\u67fb\u3057\u3066\u6c42\u3081\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u304b\u602a\u3057\u304f\u306a\u3063\u3066\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<br><br> \u4eee\u306b\u3001\u8ffd\u8de1\u8abf\u67fb\u3067\u304d\u305f\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3082\u9ebb\u75b9\u304c\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30eb\u30a8\u30f3\u30b6\u30a6\u30a4\u30eb\u30b9\u3088\u308a\u3082\u611f\u67d3\u529b\u304c\u5f37\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u7d50\u679c\u306f\u304a\u304b\u3057\u3044\u3067\u3059\u3002<br><br> 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